title: HIV incidence in Russia: SIR epidemic model-based analysis
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Sokolov, Sergei V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Sokolova, Alexandra L.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2020-03-05T13:35:06Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2020-03-05T13:35:06Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2019-12
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Sokolov S. V., Sokolova A. L. HIV incidence in Russia: SIR epidemic model-based analysis. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes, 2019, vol. 15, iss. 4, pp. 616–623.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu10.2019.416
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/17169
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: The problem of predicting the incidence rate of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
  in Russia is considered. The official morbidity levels were taken as initial data; for numerical
  modelling, the SIR model was applied to take into account the birth rate, mortality, as well
  as chemoprophylaxis and isolation of a group of infected but not epidemically dangerous
  patients. The search for the coefficients of the model is examined in detail using gradient
  descent with an auxiliary system applied. Various scenarios of the epidemic development
  are estimated, depending on the percentage of the number of patients who are undergoing
  therapy. The consequences of achieving the goals of the UNAIDS strategy 90–90–90 (90%
  people who are aware of their status, 90% among them are on HIV treatment and 90%
  among them are virally suppressed) are described. It is shown that upon reaching the target
  levels of involvement of patients in anti-epidemic measures, the number of infected people
  can be kept within 1% of the total population with a further decrease.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: en
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: Vestnik of St Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes;Volume 15; Issue 4
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: HIV
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: math modeling
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: predicting
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: incidence
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: HIV incidence in Russia: SIR epidemic model-based analysis
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 616-623.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/17169/1/616-623.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 422,71 kB