title: Analysis of the external factors influence on the forecasting of bankruptcy of Russian companies
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Fedorova, Elena A.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Musienko, Svetlana O.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Fedorov, Fedor Yu.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2020-04-28T16:48:36Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2020-04-28T16:48:36Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2020-03
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Fedorova E. A., Musienko S. O., Fedorov F. Yu. (2020). Analysis of the external factors influence on the forecasting of bankruptcy of Russian companies. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 36, iss. 1, pp. 117–133.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2020.106
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/17423
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: This article analyzes factors influencing bankruptcies of Russian companies. The increase in
  the number of relevant cases since 2014, the beginning of which was associated with the unfolding
  of another financial crisis in the country that provoked a deterioration in a number of macroeconomic indicators, raises the question of establishing the dependence of bankruptcies
  of Russian companies on certain external factors. Based on the experience of foreign studies,
  in which the importance of external factors was repeatedly proved in bankruptcy prediction
  models, a set of variables was formed that should be included to increase predictive ability.
  Using an empirical base that includes 716 construction companies (340 bankruptcies),
  702 manufacturing companies (339 bankruptcies), 713 trading companies (334 bankruptcies),
  using the binary choice models, bankruptcy prediction models were constructed, including
  two variable blocks: internal and external factors. External factors affecting bankruptcies
  of Russian companies include GDP growth, key rate, rate/increase in US dollar / euro rate,
  consumer price index, growth in MICEX index, and unemployment rate. The inclusion of
  variables characterizing external factors into the model significantly increased the explanatory
  capacity of the model compared to models based only on internal factors. The results can be
  used by companies to improve accuracy of forecasting bankruptcy probabilities, taking into
  account the macroeconomic context. In addition, the results of the study can be used by public
  authorities. Since the regulation of some of these external factors lies at the heart of the country’s
  monetary policy, the state has the ability to influence not only macroeconomic processes,
  but also the health of Russian companies.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Volume 36; Issue 1
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: forecasting of bankruptcy
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: external factors
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: state policy
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: insolvency of companies
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Analysis of the external factors influence on the forecasting of bankruptcy of Russian companies
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 117-133.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/17423/1/117-133.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 862,14 kB