title: Forecasting economic development taking into account several turning points: Indicators, model calibration, simulation computations
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Vorontsovskiy, Alexey V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Vyunenko, Lyudmila F.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2022-03-04T12:20:24Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2022-03-04T12:20:24Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2021-12
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Vorontsovskiy A. V., Vyunenko L. F. (2021) Forecasting economic development taking into account several turning points: Indicators, model calibration, simulation computations. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 37, iss. 4, pp. 513–545.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.401
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/35459
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: The article considers the possibility of constructing forecasts for macroeconomic indicators
  taking into account the turning points in their dynamics trends. The calculations are
  performed on the base of a discrete approximation for the constraints of a simple economic
  growth stochastic model using the Monte Carlo method. In the first part, the authors analyze
  the problems of justifying turning point indicators and show that there is no single approach
  to their definition. Changes in GDP, oil prices and other indicators often serve as such indicators.
  In the second part, the authors propose to relate turning points to a change in the
  value of one of the numerical parameters of the growth model under consideration — the
  capital depreciation rate. To determine the parameters of the model, a special calibration procedure
  is proposed, based on solving the optimization problem according to the criterion
  of the minimum discrepancy between the average calculated and actual trajectories of GDP
  and Consumption over the calibration period. In the third part, experimental simulations
  are performed taking into account turning points according to the data of the economies of
  Finland, Cyprus and Japan. Three turning points are allocated for Cyprus and Japan, and one
  for Finland. Forecasts of the GDP and Consumption dynamics for these countries at current
  and constant prices of 2010 are constructed. For all three countries under consideration, the
  results of simulations show that indirect accounting of turning points by amendment of the
  capital depreciation rate allows significantly improving the quality of forecasts based on the
  average calculated trajectory, taking into account the specified confidence interval for the selected
  forecast period.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Volume 37; Issue 4
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: forecasting of macroeconomics
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: stochastic growth models
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: discrete approximation
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: turning point indicators
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: capital depreciation rate
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: model calibration
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: simulation
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: GDP
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: consumption
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Forecasting economic development taking into account several turning points: Indicators, model calibration, simulation computations
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 513-545.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/35459/1/513-545.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 6,79 MB