title: Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Polyakova, Ekaterina V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Vymyatnina, Yulia V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2021-11-03T09:56:49Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2021-11-03T09:56:49Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2021-09
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Polyakova E. V., Vymyatnina Yu. V. (2021) Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 37, iss. 3, pp. 442–473.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.304
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/33412
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: Expectations of heterogeneous economic agents play a pivotal role in modern macroeconomic
  theory. Since the standard assumption about a representative fully rational agent and his/her
  ability to form model-consistent expectations of the underlying process governing real economic
  outcomes is subject to well-grounded criticism, laboratory experiments are an important
  tool for gaining new knowledge about the formation of individual expectations. This paper
  provides an overview of the results of learning-to-forecast experiments based on the New Keynesian model that allow to identify specificities of agents’ expectations formation. These
  results suggest specific recommendations on ways to increase efficiency of the Central Bank
  monetary policy. Special attention is paid to agents’ inflation expectations and specificities
  of applying various types of inflation targeting. The article presents an analysis of the impact
  of announcing the inflation target on agents’ inflation expectations and the main macroeconomic
  variables dynamics for two different inflation targeting regimes — strict and flexible.
  A comparison of point and band versions of inflation targeting is provided for shocks affecting
  the economy with different intensities. The results of learning-to-forecast experiments presented
  in the review provide evidence of training and switching between different forecasting
  heuristics and also indicate the presence of specific cognitive restrictions of agents that extend
  a certain heuristic rule to all macroeconomic variables for which the forecast is performed.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Volume 37; Issue 3
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: behavioral macroeconomics
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: experimental macroeconomics
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: learning-to-forecast experiments
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: New Keynesian model
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: heterogeneous expectations
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: inflation targeting
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 442-473.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/33412/1/442-473.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 807,4 kB