title: Integral inflow and outflow model and its applications
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Balykina, Yulia E.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Zaharov, Victor V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2024-08-19T20:13:37Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2024-08-19T20:13:37Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2024-06
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Balykina Yu. E., Zakharov V. V. Integral inflow and outflow model and its applications. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes, 2024, vol. 20, iss. 2, pp. 121–135. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu10.2024.201 (In Russian)
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu10.2024.201
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/47262
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: The article describes a general integral model of the inflow and outflow of a dynamic system,
  the parameters of which are stochastic in nature. For this type of dynamic systems, the
  general principle of dynamic balance is formulated, and the concepts of interval dynamic
  balance of integral volumes of inflow and outflow as well as the concept of dynamic balance characteristic are introduced. The class of stochastic dynamic processes and systems of inflow
  and outflow that satisfy the principle of dynamic balance is quite wide (the spread of viral
  epidemics and the dynamics of morbidity in medicine, processes of changes in the size and
  structure of the population in demography, the dynamics of supply and demand in the
  economy, etc.). The possibilities of using the proposed model for constructing short-term
  and long-term forecasts are demonstrated using examples of the spread of the COVID-19
  epidemic in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, as well as using the example of forecasting the
  growth of the Earth population and population of countries. The results of computational
  experiments on constructing retrospective forecasts of the state of dynamic systems using
  the method of dynamic trends of stochastic parameters of the integral model and using the
  classical ARIMA method are presented. A comparative analysis of forecasting accuracy is
  provided.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.description.sponsorship
metadata.value: This research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project N 23-21-10049
  (https://rscf.ru/project/23-21-10049/), and Saint Petersburg Science Foundation.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: Vestnik of St Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes;Volume 20; Issue 2
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: dynamic systems of inflow and outflow
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: principle of dynamic balance
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: dynamic balance characteristic
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: mathematical modeling
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: forecasting
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Integral inflow and outflow model and its applications
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: vestnik_spbu10_2024_121.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/47262/1/vestnik_spbu10_2024_121.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 696,86 kB