title: Forecasting the economy development based on a stochastic model of economic growth given a turning point
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Vorontsovskiy, Aleksey V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Vyunenko, Lyudmila F.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2017-01-30T08:59:43Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2017-01-30T08:59:43Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2016-12
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Vorontsovskiy A. V., Vyunenko L. F. Forecasting the economy development based on a stochastic model of economic growth given a turning point. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 2016, issue 4, pp. 4–32.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: 10.21638/11701/spbu05.2016.401
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/5979
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: The article notes the increasing influence of uncertainty and risk factors on the economic development in modern conditions. Some opportunities to consider this impact are connected with the use of stochastic models for economic growth. The authors study the methods of forecasting the economic development based on a discrete stochastic approximation for the constraints of the economic growth model using the Euler-Maruyama method. The proposed approach permits constructing the mean calculated economic growth trajectory starting from the current (initial) state. The method implementation in the simulation mode is presented with regard to the turning point induced by the 2008 global economic crisis. Special attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the proposed method and the problem of the economic growth stochastic model calibration. The calculations of GDP and consumption expenditure trajectories are performed according to the data for Greece, Denmark, and Spain in two time periods — before and aft er the 2008 crisis. The sets of model parameters are found that provide the compliance of the actual trajectories with 50% confidence intervals of calculated values of the macroeconomic indicators under consideration. It is shown that the use of the baseline data defined in fixed 1970 prices for the forecast calculations can increase the compliance.
  Refs 36. Figs 12. Tables 12.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Issue 4
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: economic development
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: forecast methods
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: macroeconomic indicators
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: stochastic model
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: discrete approximation
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: simulation
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: growth trajectory
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: confidence interval
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: turning point
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Forecasting the economy development based on a stochastic model of economic growth given a turning point
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 01-Vorontsovskiy.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/5979/1/01-Vorontsovskiy.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 2,62 MB