title: Measuring inflation expectations: Traditional and innovative approaches
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Balatsky, Evgeniy V.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Yurevich, Maksim A.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2019-02-04T12:02:25Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2019-02-04T12:02:25Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2018-12
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Balatsky E. V., Yurevich M. A. Measuring inflation expectations: Traditional and innovative approaches. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, vol. 34, issue 4, pp. 534– 552.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: 10.21638/spbu05.2018.403
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/15366
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: The article is focused on the four methods of measuring and assessing inflation expectations: sociological surveys; stock market indicators; econometric (mathematical) models; methods of big data research. It is noted that the coexistence of these four groups is a consequence of two trends of the last decades: the presence of two lines of economic tools development associated with the improvement of traditional methods and the creation of completely new analytical approaches for processing big data. The transformation of the economy into engineering (technical) science with its inherent problem of instrumental pluralism. Within the framework of sociological surveys, three groups of respondents were considered — population, entrepreneurs and financiers-experts. Market indices of inflation expectations contain a kind of regulatory conflict, the essence of which is that the monetary failures of one Agency (Central Bank) are covered by another Agency (Ministry of Finance) and thus generate unaccounted endogenous shocks. We consider econometric models that include three types-the concept of “back-looking” and “forward-looking” inflation expectations, as well as the concept of the Phillips curve. It is proved that econometric models are characterized by extremely low susceptibility of “black swans” and primitive representation of the mechanism of inflationary expectations formation, which makes this approach the least promising. Among the newest methods of measuring inflation expectations considered big data-technologies that use operational data of the Internet environment and social networks. It is concluded that this class of methods is the most promising and in the future is able in its importance and popularity to come to the first place. The authors substantiate the thesis about the impending reshuffle of the popularity of the four types of inflation expectations estimation methods.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.description.sponsorship
metadata.value: This research was supported by the state task of the Government of the Russian Federation to the Financial University for 2018 (topic “Methods of assessing the impact of non-monetary factors on the dynamics of inflation”, code AAA-A18-118052490081-5).
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Volume 34; Issue 4
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: inflation
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: inflation expectations
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: sociological research
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: econometrics
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: big data
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: market index
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Measuring inflation expectations: Traditional and innovative approaches
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 03-Balatskiy.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/15366/1/03-Balatskiy.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 728,89 kB