title: Russian economic policy: A model with discretionary policy or policy rules
metadata.name: dc.contributor.author
metadata.value: Ivashchenko, Sergey M.
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.accessioned
metadata.value: 2018-04-04T16:33:46Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.available
metadata.value: 2018-04-04T16:33:46Z
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.date.issued
metadata.value: 2018-03
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.citation
metadata.value: Ivashchenko S. M. Russian economic policy: A model with discretionary policy or policy rules. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, vol. 34, issue 1, pp. 149–172.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.identifier.other
metadata.value: 10.21638/11701/spbu05.2018.108
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.identifier.uri
metadata.value: http://hdl.handle.net/11701/9320
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.description.abstract
metadata.value: Models of dynamic stochastic general economic equilibrium (DSGE) are based on preferences and technologies. However, the behavior of the state is usually described using exogenous instrumental rules. In the face of significant changes in external conditions, such an approach can poorly predict the behavior of the state and, as a consequence, the economy. A DSGE model of Russia is developed, with the state conducting optimal policy for given purposes, along with a version in which the state follows instrumental rules. Parameters of the models were estimated by the maximum likelihood method and Bayesian inference (with a non-informative a priori distribution). The classical approach has affinity for the version with the optimal policy, and the Bayesian approach for the instrumental rules. The goals of the economic policy pursued in Russia are identified. In particular, the fight against inflation has low priority, and the stability of budget revenues has the highest priority. Estimates of a number of key parameters differ significantly for the two versions of the DSGE model, i.e. the type of state description significantly affects how the model of the rest of the economy should behave in order to comply with statistical data. At the same time, both versions of the model give almost the same quality of forecasts.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.description.sponsorship
metadata.value: The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), the project “Structural changes in the Russian economy: the role of human capital and investments” No. 18-010-01185.
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.language.iso
metadata.value: ru
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.publisher
metadata.value: St Petersburg State University
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.relation.ispartofseries
metadata.value: St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies;Volume 34; Issue 1
metadata.lang: -
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: DSGE
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: instrument rules
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.subject
metadata.value: optimal policy
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.title
metadata.value: Russian economic policy: A model with discretionary policy or policy rules
metadata.lang: en_GB
metadata.name: dc.type
metadata.value: Article
metadata.lang: en_GB
resources.filename: 08-Ivashchenko.pdf
resources.url: https://dspace.spbu.ru/bitstream/11701/9320/1/08-Ivashchenko.pdf
resources.format: Adobe PDF
resources.size: 819,78 kB