‘Birds Of Prey’ Could Pave Way For Box Office Bombs To Race From Theaters To VOD

Birds of Prey will be available to own on digital HD a week from today, which may pave the way for box office under-performers to go straight from theaters to VOD.

Hot on the heels of Universal announcing both a day-and-date theatrical/VOD release for the upcoming Trolls: World Tour (April 10 in North America) as well as the immediate (as of Friday) VOD availability ($20 for a 48-hour rental) of The Hunt, Emma and The Invisible Man, Warner Bros. will be making Birds of Prey available via conventional electronic sell-through (or “priced to buy” VOD) a week from today. Director Cathy Yan tweeted yesterday, in response to the Universal news, that she wouldn’t be opposed to an early EST release, and either Warner Bros. was listening or said tweet was made with the full knowledge and support of the higher ups. But, yeah, this could also be the start of something interesting in terms of the theatrical window.

There is a big difference between “major” movies being available via home viewing concurrently with their wide theatrical release and a box office under-performer sneaking past the theatrical window a little earlier than otherwise planned. Yes, these are extraordinary circumstances, with major theater chains nationwide closing indefinitely, but what we’re seeing here, is something that’s been discussed for almost as long as the whole day-and-date thing. Simply put: Can you release a box office whiff on VOD/DVD early without further damaging the notion of theatrical exclusivity? With most big theatrical releases doing the vast majority of their business in the first six weeks, and most biggies mostly done by the end of month two, should the theatrical window be shortened behind the customary 90-100 days?

Disney raised the ire of theater owners in 2010 by releasing Alice In Wonderland onto DVD and Blu-ray (this was before online consumption was much of a factor) just thee months after its theatrical release, as opposed to (as was custom) four months or more. In 2010, back when Disney was struggling theatrically, they were urgently pushing against the theatrical window, while today, as Disney essentially rules the theatrical marketplace (especially in North America), they are the holdouts. The Tim Burton-directed fantasy opened with $116 million (a record for a non-sequel at the time) and legged out to $334 million domestic and $1.025 billion worldwide. It grossed 94% of its money 97% of its domestic gross by the end of its seventh weekend.

Save for freak exceptions like Scream, The Sixth Sense, Frozen, The Greatest Showman and My Big Fat Greek Wedding (and movies that end up in the Oscar race), most movies, even leggy ones, are mostly done by the end of their second month. Most biggies you can think of offhand (Inception, Shrek 2, Guardians of the Galaxy, How to Train Your Dragon, The Dark Knight, The Avengers, Toy Story 3, Spider-Man, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Wonder Woman, Black Panther, Frozen II, etc.) earned 88-94% of their domestic cumes by the end of weekend six. Those are among the leggier mega-hits over the last decade or so. What about the bombs or the films that are gone from theaters in a matter of weeks?

There was talk in October of 2015, after a flurry of wide releases (Crimson Peak, Jem and the Holograms, Burnt, The Last Witch Hunter, Steve Jobs, etc.) crashed-and-burned against four-quadrant blockbuster The Martian, of whether or not these “done in two-to-three weeks” releases should go straight to their post-theatrical afterlife. Nothing came of this, but would even fewer people have seen Our Brand is Crisis (or Cats and Black Christmas, two exceptionally low grossers that are both debuting on VOD this morning) had they known that the films would be available to digitally own for $20 less than a month after their theatrical opening day? That’s the risk with a well-liked underperformer like Birds of Prey. You risk cutting off the next Birds of Prey at the knees.

Again, this is all assuming that the coronavirus goes away or becomes a relatively treatable seasonal bug and life returns to some sense of normality in the near future. But in these trying times, it makes sense for Universal to offer recently released theatrical offerings, ones that were kneecapped due to theater closures, as VOD offerings, since it’s not like they are going to make any more money in theatrical distribution. It makes equal sense for Birds of Prey, which was essentially finished anyway with just under $200 million worldwide on a $82 million budget. Moreover, unlike Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey wasn’t going to play in China. WB doesn’t have to worry about pirated digital copies undercutting a future Chinese release date.

The question here is whether there is a tangible difference between “this movie is opening in wide theatrical release and $20-to-rent-at-home VOD concurrently” and “this movie is going to VOD immediately after exiting theaters.” Would Birds of Prey have made even less money in theaters had audiences known that it would be available to own on digital HD just 47 days after its domestic theatrical debut? I’m not thrilled about Universal’s “release Trolls: World Tour on VOD and theaters concurrently.” Even if it’s just about that specific title it’s hard to put that genie back in the bottle. But the notion of offering new (and somewhat disappointing) theatrical releases on priced-to-buy (or exceptionally expensive to rent) VOD right after theatrical release is a coin toss.

Will a whole bunch of people pay $20 to rent The Hunt, The Invisible Man, Emma and Trolls: World Tour? Will copious folks who didn’t see Birds of Prey in theaters pay $20 to buy the film partially due to the whole “self-isolation” factor? Obviously, a lot depends on how isolated you are. Paying $20 to rent The Hunt by yourself may be less appetizing, give or take your financial situation, than paying $20 to rent Trolls 2 for your family of five. Or, perhaps, absolutely nothing will happen as folks will decide to continue to stream the movies and TV shows available on Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ and Amazon. We’ll see how it goes, but I’d guess that this shortening of the theatrical window may be permanent.